Long Island City New York May 2015 panorama 3In January, the Pro Teck Valuation Services released it new “Home Value Forecast “that is a measure of single family residential markets and there was a few good surprises. Although Pro Tech’s HVF uses several leading real estate indicators to determine rankings, including sales/listing activity, prices, months of remaining inventory (MRI), days on market (DOM), sold-to-list price ratio, foreclosure, and REO activity, foreclosure activity is far and away the most distinguishing factor on the list when it comes to the difference between a “hot,” growing market and a “cold,” stagnant or suffering one.

Long Island (Nassau and Suffolk Counties, NY) was ranked the strongest market in the nation, and one factor told the story as strongly as any – foreclosures. While the top market, Long Island, only has 2.2 percent of sales as foreclosures, the worst market according to the list, Jacksonville, Florida, currently has 81.2 percent of its sales as foreclosures. Many factors account for Long Island’s strong market, including foreclosures making up an inconsequential 2.18 percent of sales and available housing inventory at only 3.63 months. In the other hand, looking at the five year forecast, Jacksonville’s prices are not expected to get anywhere near its 2007 peak. Foreclosures will continue to hamper the market from returning to true market fundamentals for the foreseeable future.

For many of those that read this article and living in California, the good news is that among the other markets in the top ten strongest is included Los Angeles, Anaheim, Oxnard-Thousand Oaks, San Diego, San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo Grande and Santa Maria-Santa Barbara counties. The other two to complete the top ten is Ashville (NC) and Houston (TX). California and especially the Los Angeles area made a strong showing in this mention report. The ten weakest housing markets, according to the respective same report, includes Montgomery (AL), Port St. Lucie (FL), Cape Coral-Ft. Myers (FL), Elkhart-Goshen (IN), Grand Junction (CO), Jacksonville (NC), Mobile (AL), Saginaw (MI), Homosassa Springs (FL), and Jacksonville (FL). Florida had four entries on the list, while Alabama had two.

The new report sees more good times ahead for Long Island and a tough road for Jacksonville if we looking at the extended five years forecast. On the final conclusion, foreclosures will continue to hamper the market from returning to true market fundamentals for the foreseeable future.


*Vladimir Bellemo is currently based in Orange County, California and he has extensive experience including foreclosures and short sales – www.bellemo.com

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